THE ROAD TO THE OSCARS 2011: THE PREDICTIONS

This is one of the toughest year’s to make predictions with almost every category having at least two strong contenders. There is no Titanic like film this year to bulldoze its way through every category it has been nominated for. But yet, I’ll have to throw my hat into the ring with just one choice for who might win and another for whom I would give the Oscar to.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
All films in this category are nominated for Best Picture. So from just these five nominees, the one that has the best chance of winning Best Picture should also win in this category. That I think will be Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network. And that’s pretty much my choice too.

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Caveat: I haven’t seen Mike Leigh’s Another Year. So if he were to win, I stand acquitted. From the other four, it could either be Christopher Nolan for Inception or David Seidler for The King’s Speech. I would give it to The King. The Academy might concur.

Animated Feature Film
Last year, Up was nominated in this category as well as for Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay. It won for Best Animated Film. This year the story repeats itself with Toy Story 3. Why does the Academy bother to nominate two more films in this category when it’s making its choice so obvious in advance? If it doesn’t win, it’s inexplicable. I haven’t seen the other two films nominated but I sure as hell wouldn’t want to award Toy Story 3.
(Can I use a similar analogy and say that Biutiful will win for Best Foreign Language Film? After all, it has also been nominated for Best Actor. I think I’d rather not. Last year, I over-confidently, ended up proclaiming White Ribbon in this category without having seen a single film nominated. This year, I’d rather not have egg on my face.)

Actor in a Supporting Role
Every since I have seen The King’s Speech and The Fighter on back-to-back days, I have been tearing my hair out trying to figure whether it will be Geoffrey Rush or Christian Bale. Rush has already been feted once. But that logic seldom applies nowadays. My personal choice is Bale, without any doubt. But that is not to belittle Rush’s performance. The Academy is likely to go with him. This is one category, where I shall be happy if I am proven wrong.

Actress in a Supporting Role
I found this to be the toughest category to predict. Each time I go over the list of nominees, each looks stronger than the rest. So we’ll start with elimination. First, I’ll discount Amy Adams, simply because Melissa Leo in the same film was better than her. Then I’ll take out Helena Bonham Carter. After the hue and cry over the Oscar for Judi Dench for Shakespeare in Love, I hope that Academy has learnt its lesson and will not award it to someone who has very little footage in a film. Hailee Steifeld is young and can wait for her turn. So it’s a showdown between the two tough mamas – Jacki Weaver and Melissa Leo. Leo has a slight upper edge because her role is lengthier than Weaver’s. She would be my choice too.

Actor in a Leading Role
Colin Firth. Period.

Actress in a Leading Role
The buzz surrounding Natalie Portman is so strong, I have a feeling this is going to be her year. Annette Bening’s shine gets diluted in the crowd of other good actors in The Kids Are All Right. My Oscar goes to Jennifer Lawrence for single handedly, carrying off Winter’s Bone.

Directing
Hmmm. Whatever I say here is also true for Best Picture. It’s a difficult call between David Fincher for The Social Network and Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech. Judging by past Academy trends, here’s the equation – Social Handicap + Biopic vs. Handicap + Biopic + Costume Drama. Its three is to two in the King’s favour. I’d crown him too.

Best Picture
This is a farce of a category with 10 nominees begging for the hosts to spoof them. Just once, I’d like to see a film win that hasn’t been nominated for Directing. It’s going to be The King’s Speech alright. If I could award a silver Oscar, it would go to Winter’s Bone.